Summary: 2024 started out relatively quiet with a below average March and much of early and mid April. Things too a turn toward the end of the month as a favorable pattern for severe storms setup with the transition into a weak El Nino. A massive outbreak affected Iowa and Nebraska on the 26th. A large outbreak on the 27th and 28th followed. This favorable stretch continued through May with a near record number of tornadoes and numerous chase events.

In 2024 I began to include a spatial component to my seasonal forecasts as well as the standard monthly numbers. The initial verification showed promise for the future. See the blog section for a deatiled breakdown of the forecast and how all the different verification metrics were used.

Summary: 2023 was a very active year right off the start. March had several large events including the March 31st High Risk outbreak with over 170 tornadoes! The active stretch continued through mid April with the April 19th Oklahoma Outbreak. However the end of the month was quiet as the pattern reverted to a cool and unfavorable regime. Signs of activity emerged again into early May as a series of troughs developed over the central Plains. Several tornado outbreaks were seen. I finished with 12 tornadoes on the year with 8 chases.

My forecast for March worked out very well with a strong above average hit. The rest of the year was a bit tricky but we did ultimately land within the forecast range. See the blog for a deatiled write up.